Louis-Andre,
There are always factors to consider when doing a roof survey - reflections, thick tar, mounds of gravel, dirty spots, time of day, heating/cooling conditions - and on and on... But, from your question, it looks like you've considered many of these already: 1. You did the survey both in the evening and the morning. 2. You researched the materials - non-absorbent insulation and grey asphalt (roll roofing). 3. You researched other causes for the heating you detected. 4. You already determined that the heat was not from a reflection.
It sounds like you did everything right, and looks like you took a good photo. You've limited your margin of error as much as possible. That said, we are still only photographers at this point. Present your photos, the conditions under which they were taken, even research/articles to back up why youv'e taken the photos if you have to. But, ultimately this is where your job as a thermographer ends. You've provided the information to lead your customer to the next phase - further testing. Yes, you could do capacitance meter or other testing to help verify your findings. But as a thermographer you are done.
To this particular photo - roll roofing is an excellent emitter, water could stand on the non-absorbent insulation, it would show up warm at night (following good solar loading), it could show up cool in the morning as the sun is just starting to warm the roof. It sounds like a winner. Test it... it's easy to do on asphalt with a Tramex. If you are going to do roofs - at Tramex Capacitance Meter needs to be in your toolbox.
Best regards,
Thomas Kremser
Altheus Infrared, Inc.
www.AltheusIR.com