Dave: There are many different ways to estimate this - but it is complex. There are many factors that you need to look at to determine what you are asking. For example, where is the thermostat located, the wind speed outside, convection sources inside, temperature wanted inside, outdoor temperature, insulation value of walls, ceiling, efficiency of furnace, etc...
I estimate this within industrial facilities. Good engineering practice uses good estimates for many of these factors because not all factors can be measured effectively for what you are asking. But, you can find wind speed and outdoor temperature from weather data. You can measure combustion efficiency of your furnace. You can obtain R-values of your insulation and walls from literature. ETC...
So, you probably can come up with a good estimate for how many Btu's are lost based on these factors. Also, do not forget infiltration/exfiltration, something that is often forgotten. A good tight building/room typically has an air change per hour of 0.1 to 0.3. An average room is about 0.5. A leaky room has 1 or more.